Theory of Change - Step 1 : the Big Hairy Audacious Goal
Theory of Change - step one: the big hairy audacious goal
The idea for this blog is to 'think in ink': my hope being that by writing (and reading) every week, solutions might emerge to strategic problems. In previous posts, I've written about the complex nature of educational interventions and the challenges of measuring successful impact.
I am increasingly convinced that Theory of Change provides the best way forward in dealing with these challenges.
In the next few blog posts, I will document the application of Theory of Change (ToC) to my day-to-day work with schools in the North East. Being a novice on this approach, the aim is to share any learnings as I upskill and learn the ways of the ToC.
Step 1: defining the 'why'
Theory of Change turns conventional planning on its head because it pushes groups to first work out their goals or desired impact and work backwards on outcome pathways rather than engage in conventional forward oriented “so-that” reasoning. [link]
If we are to reverse engineer 'outcome pathways', we first must define where the path is leading: the Big Hairy Audacious Goal (BHAG) as Jim Collins memorably calls it in business bible Good to Great. One of the elegant aspects of ToC is that we needn't take direct responsibility for the 'long term impact goal'. We may be one of many organisations aiming to make a dent in the goal, but it is not our sole responsibility. And here is the rub: it doesn't mean we shouldn't try and that we can't measure how close we are getting to it.
This is the difference between impact and outcomes - ToC says we can measure the 'stepping stone' outcomes rather than the longer term impact.
Let's take a wonderful charity that we are working closely with at RGS this year: DePaul. DePaul is a charity tackling homelessness and supporting vulnerable young people. Their long term goal is to end homelessness for all young people. In a Theory of Change, this long term vision can be placed above an 'accountability ceiling', often denoted by a dotted line in the flow diagram. Yes, DePaul would love to achieve this goal, but factors contributing to this long term success are beyond their sole control, or in ToC language, above the accountability ceiling. What they can do is put intermediate outcomes in place, which are measurable via Indicators, or KPIs, indicating positive steps towards the BHAG.
Targets should always be set high - they are what push us to achieve more than we thought possible. Think of the extremely high targets for the vaccine roll-out, which seemed unachievable at the time, but were reached by resourceful professionals and organisations playing their individual roles. It is clear that a discussion with stakeholders is needed at the outset to define and articulate the BHAG. Once it is in place, a certain clarity is achieved and a narrative emerges. Anything that is not working towards the goal should be scrapped. It is the early job of key stakeholders, SLT and funders to decide whether the BHAG is 'plausible, feasible and testable'. Is it within the scope of the organisation's expertise and remit to make a dent in the BHAG? If not, then perhaps it is the wrong target.
The BHAG for those of us in Director of Partnerships roles is not uniform: it is hugely context-specific and 'dependent on resource and expertise' [DfE-ISC Joint Memo of Understanding]. However, for a school like RGS Newcastle, with great heritage in the city, the context and case for support of local children could not be clearer. Recent data produced by End Child Poverty show 56% of children in the centre of Newcastle are living in poverty. Furthermore, the 2022 SATs results analysis made worrying reading, with the 'disadvantage gap between 11-year-olds at its biggest in 10 years' [The Times] and new research published by the North East Child Poverty Commission finds that 'the gap between the living standards of children in the region and the UK average has reached a twenty-year high'.
So the long term impact goal is clear:
To raise aspiration and attainment among disadvantaged children in the North East.
……....…..............................................................................
Now to plan how we make a dent in this Big Hairy Audacious Goal.
Recommended Reading
Nick Hart writes about Complexity and School Leadership in his blog post here.
In making my first steps towards a Theory of Change, I found this resource very useful: https://www.actknowledge.org/resources/documents/ToC-Tech-Papers.pdf via theActKnowledge website.
Similarly, there are accessible templates and training available at:
I have adapted templates and ideas from all of these resources and other listed in the references page of this blog. I'd love to hear of any recommended books / videos / podcasts on Theory of Change - please contact me via the details in the drop down menu of the blog.
Recommended Listening
In this episode of Revisionist History, Malcolm Gladwell reflects on the legacy of his work in the book Outliers around the 'birthday gap'... why children with Autumn birthdays outperform those with summer birthdays. A very good listen for those with an interest in the original study and subsequent popularisation by Gladwell.
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